Life as a New Hire Ch. 42

It would make us look bad? Sir, I am more worried about how bad dead US servicemen and women look. Don't you think ...

Yes Sir, we know we implement policy, not create it.

Okay Sir. After all, the Khanate might not know about the F-22's range issues. Maybe they don't have an effective intelligence network or [mutters] access to Wikipedia.

(The Marine Corps?}

'500 Marines on site and 1700 Marines on the way; fit, rested and ready, Sir'. Where do you want us to go?'

'Do we have any idea about the level of opposition, the amount of time this mission will take and what precisely we are going to be required to do?' '

What else could the Commandant say? The other six MEU were too far away to affect the nine-day timetable. The Marine Air components would do their job, even if clearly outnumbered. His one voiced concern was for the possible reception his Marines would receive from the Thai people. Apparently the current dictator wasn't terribly popular ... and was gunning down his own people in the streets. Things like that were hard on his men's morale.

{The Army? }

What exactly do you want us do again?

Go into a potential 'hot' warzone where the safety of deployment as well resupply were clearly debatable?

That's why God made Rangers. The Airborne would arrive once all the real fighting was accomplished anyway and, now that they were getting out of Afghanistan, they had someplace new to send their overworked reservists. They could deploy the 1st Brigade Combat Team, 82nd Airborne to the Philippines, provided they were welcome.

Unlike the US Navy, who expected their ships to sail around ready for a fight, the US Army would need to access extra funding for this deployment. They also wanted the President's written authorization to fly 'their' (actually the Air Force's) MC-130's into forward bases that existed within a 10 minute fly time of potentially hostile borders.

With no clear operational objectives, limited intelligence on enemy forces and absent an exit strategy, the Joint Chiefs weren't fans of intervention. Yes, they did know this was a bluff. But they were paid to plan for the contingency that THIS bluff was called and they were expected to take this showdown to the level of a true confrontation if that occurred. Lives were at stake.

With that kind of advice, Hagel deferred his support for this endeavor by laying it all on Secretary Kerry's lap. His troopers would go in, if they had the proper regional support. Kerry told the President that he could get that support if he made some backroom deals with the Malaysia, the ROC and the Philippines ... most likely to screw over China in some manner. The Administration could renege later, sighting a mutable geopolitical landscape.

At that point the National Security Advisor, Susan Rice, rallied to POTUS's side and put forth into his mind the gem of an idea that if the US acted decisively, there would be no need for fighting. After all, she had this 'hand-picked' team of intelligence experts who had an in depth knowledge of the Khanate's leadership. The Khanate wasn't a terrorist organization and could be dealt with rationally ~ she'd read our reports! Sadly she had decided to cherry-pick what she wanted to pass on.

We in JIKIT were wondering why she had decided to not recall what else we had warned her about ~ you know: the Khanate not respecting the current administration and doubting its resolve. JIKIT had TOLD her to use OVERWHELMING force. Feeding them one aircraft carrier at a time was the opposite of that.

The Khanate wasn't likely to attack one carrier. A) they doubted the US Navy was feeling particularly suicidal, B) they already believed that if the US hit first, they certainly could flatten that carrier and its supporting ships, and C) if the US appeared to be becoming problematic, the Khanate would strike first and hard.

Did the Khanate believe their planes and missiles were so good that they could penetrate the impenetrable barrier that surrounded a US taskforce?

Perhaps. They had fucked the PLAN pretty hard, striking at a greater distance with less preparation. Why didn't our political bosses see that?

Fathom told me it was information overload. We were providing so much data that the people on top couldn't possibly know everything.

Someone in Washington forgot to put that into the National Security briefing that the National Security Advisor gave the President that the Khanate had captured a series of Chinese missiles in Western China, and not just the nuclear ones. Some of those captured missiles were an advanced Chinese design with a suspected range of 3500 km. It was a freaking intermediate-range ballistic missile! That bitch could hit Mach 10 ... and it could be steered ... and it was radar seeking.

Why had IRBM anti-ship missiles been in Western (as opposed to being on the coast in Eastern China)? To hit targets in the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf -- DUH! That was the kind of range we were talking about. JIKIT teams had aided in the capture of those weapons and the Khanate had confirmed it. We were their friends and that's how they treated their friends -- with honesty. Like a good little minion, Addison had passed that knowledge on.

At the same time, the 16 Tu-160M supersonic bombers presently sitting on the tarmac on Woody Island could scramble and then launch 12 advanced anti-ship missiles -- EACH. I was sure that the navy's Aegis-cruisers were the best money could buy. Expecting them to handled 192 incoming 'vampires' [military jargon for the 'shit trying to kill us'] sea-skimming their way at Mach 5 was probably asking too much.

I couldn't claim to divine the inner workings of the President of the United State's mind, but personally I believed he said 'what the fuck. I can always call them back later', forgetting the Khanate's willingness to launch a preemptive strike when it suited their purpose.

Or, the far more likely outcome that we (the US) would be utterly ignored in front of the world-wide media because the Khanate was ruled by military men who took into account what their troops could and couldn't do before making politically-based military decisions.

Could their actions lead to war? Perhaps. When you picked up the sword, expect violence. Could the US beat the Khanate? Perhaps, if the US people had the will to continue fighting long enough. The will of a people to persevere was a great unknown. The US had been underestimated before.

What was known was the US was running a $400 Billion Budget Deficit, carrying over $18 TRILLION in debt and we were a consumer-driven, service economy utterly dependent on foreign trade. The US did have the world's best military, but they weren't designed to be an army of conquest. They'd been stretched thin occupying Iraq and Afghanistan. The ability of our military to replace both people and equipment was limited by high production costs, a long season of peace and a casualty-averse populace.

The Khanate was a resource-driven economy which meant other countries needed the raw materials they were selling. They were hardly an internally independent entity and they appreciated their own trade vulnerability. A big difference was they were ruled by a leadership that fully expected to spend a generation in bloodletting to reconstitute their vanished empire. Their infant nation was already in a war economy. Their people were awake to the cost to citizenry in their state and aware there would be a physical cost for achieving security for those who would follow.

In the end, I believed the US President was aware of both of the above series of facts, but decided his 'there is nothing I can do' policy was way down in the public opinion polls, domestic prices were roller-coasting and there was a mid-term Congressional election right around the corner.

Peace had not broken out across the globe as he had hoped, Islamophobia was a dirty little secret walking the back halls of the temples of power and Osama Bin Laden had only been replaced by a far more insidious foe of the New World Order. The raging currents of the present reality were about to reduce him to a footnote in history and in the land where legacy mattered, that was something too horrible to contemplate.

Then he caged his decisive 'Do it!' with a suggestion that Susan make sure her experts thought this was a viable idea. Talk about passing the buck. The buck landed in Tony Blinken's (Deputy National Security Advisor (DNSA)) lap and he called us ... Addison really, but she had all of us in pretty quick. I didn't have to delve into the deep, mystic thoughts of Temujin to know how to answer that question: 'Don't do it!'

'What is in it for them?'

Tony: 'Nothing, of course. We are the United-Fucking States! Oh, and the Great Khan is a bad guy. Worse, he's unpalatable to anyone who considers Human Rights to be a priority.'

'That's not going to fly. They've got the chance to secure their flanks and get good PR in the process.'

Tony: 'Fine. Can you find a way to hold them off for four days? That's all we need.'

'Four days? What happens in four days?'

Tony: 'You don't need to know that. Get it done.'

'That's not how it works. They aren't relying on us to be their intelligence resource. You are.'

Tony: 'Fine. Tell them we are moving forward with an effort in the UN to bring about a peaceful democratic regime change.'

'Do you really expect them to care? Wait, you do realize they have satellite reconnaissance, don't you?'

At that point in our encrypted conversation with Addison, she began doing some intelligence research of her own. The US had only two tools in their immediate toolbox: missile/drone strikes and carrier deployments. Wrangling UN sanctions and the War Powers Act would take time and we'd see it coming.

Drone/missile strikes weren't ruled out, but the Khanate didn't play the 'only tit-for-tat' game. You attack them, or their logistics, and they took that as an act of war and behaved accordingly. There were plenty of US military bases they could strike. Plus the US needed the free flow of commerce through the South China Sea, not the Khanate.

The Mongol-Turkish regime could turn that body of water into an 'Exclusion Zone'. That was the term for a blockade which, in turn was a euphemism for the Khanate giving fair warning to all merchant ships they could be fired upon at a moment's notice. Ships flying the Indian, Japanese, ROC, South Korean or Vietnamese ensign would be okay. They were either allies, or potential allies.

Panama? Liberia? The Marshal Islands? The Khanate had more pressing things to do than worry about what those little nations (and their combined 40% of the world's merchant ships) cared about them. Next question: how much was that baby insured for? I was sure the guys and gals at Lloyd's of London would be buying Pepto in bulk if this came down to seeing who was the biggest bully on the block.

Sure this was in the short term very bad for the Khanate ~ getting in a shooting war with the US. It was ugly in the mid-term as well ~ the US was the world's leading economic power. In the long term, which was how the Great Khan thought, it was the only thing he could do. He could not let the US think they could dictate Khanate international relations without serious consequences. It wasn't how the Khanate operated. We all hoped the people around the President understood that.

'You are not going to launch drone strikes, are you? They would see that as an act of war and behave accordingly.'

Tony: 'We are keeping our options open.' A 'no comment' would have meant 'yes'.

Addison mouthed to me 'Thank God'.

That left the carrier fleet deployment option. We guessed, incorrectly, that the US was going to place four carrier groups on the Khanate's back door. That would be drawing a line in the sand. None of us believed the US government would ever be foolish enough to come in with only one carrier -- that they would leave the one in Japan and the Arabian Sea just sitting there. The US Navy posted on its web page the general position and activity of her various fleet elements. It was general knowledge.

'You can't possibly move in enough forces in place to deter them, Sir.'

Tony: 'You need to find us a way to delay the Khanate by two weeks. You are the experts -- do it!'

'Two weeks ... what happened to the four days?'

Tony: 'You work for me.'

'Very well, Sir. We suspect the Khanate will intervene in Thailand somewhere between five and seven days. Waiting two weeks is unrealistic.'

'If the US and UN declare Thailand a 'No-Fly Zone', what is the likelihood they will respect it?'

'Zero -- zip -- none. How could you possibly enforce that? You can't and they know it.'

Tony: 'Yes we can. Would they challenge it?'

'Well, if you bring the 'George H. W. Bush' into the Andaman Sea, won't that piss of the Indians ... and leave the Persian Gulf unguarded and ISIS unmolested?'

The 'George H. W. Bush' was in the Persian Gulf and would have to sail around India (passed Indian's submarine fleet) to get into a position to intervene from a body of water the Indian's considered theirs and theirs alone. We all knew President Obama had made a policy decision in the first part of August to punish ISIS and save the Kurds and Yazidis. Would he go back on that pledge?

Tony: 'You don't need to know that.'

'If we don't know the level of the threat, we can't tell you what the most likely response will be.'

Tony: 'What would they do if we placed one carrier in the Gulf of Thailand? Two, three, four, or five?'

'One ... two -- they do nothing. You would need to form an alliance with at least one other regional player ... that isn't the Philippines.'

Tony: 'What is wrong with the Philippines?'

'They have hardly any air force and blue-water navy to speak of.'

Tony: 'What about the Republic of China?'

'They are a totally different matter, but what are you giving the Taiwanese to betray the Khanate? The Khanate has recognized the independence of the ROC while we haven't. They've fought China while you haven't. It had better be something good.'

Tony: 'What about Malaysia?'

'The Khanate and Malaysia aren't getting along right now. They complicate their pugnacious attitude by being somewhat weak in the matter of offensive forces they can bring to bear. Their military is good ... and small. What would you want them to do?'

Tony: 'That is not your concern.'

'Sir, if you begin opening negotiations with Taiwan, or Malaysia, the Khanate is going to find out. [Probably from us.] That's a fact.'

Tony: 'This is not your concern. Our East Asian experts know what's going on.'

'What about the Taiwan Relations Act Affirmation and Naval Vessel Transfer Act of 2014 with the Collins Amendment?'

Tony: 'What about it?'

'If the administration would express support for it, it would go a long way to solving all your problems. Let the Taiwanese and Turkey buy those frigates and make it contingent on their goodwill.'

Tony: 'What does this have to do with the Khanate?' Groan.

Brief Segway :

Senator Susan Collins of Maine, JIKIT's Congressional mentor, at our urging had proposed an amendment to the Taiwan Relations Act Affirmation and Naval Vessel Transfer Act of 2014 which would allow 'Turkey' to purchase six 'Oliver Perry class frigates for $10 million each. The same act already proposed four such vessels to be sold to Taiwan for the same amount as well as giving two to Thailand (and two to Mexico) free of charge.

Things had immediately bogged down in the 113th US Congress. It was too easy for Democrats in both Houses to take the President's position that any additional weapons into the South China Sea area would further destabilize the region. The pro-PRC lobby was equally opposed to the bill. Under normal conditions, that would have been good enough to send the measure off to the procedural graveyard.

Except in the current contrary nature of the US's chief legislative body, this meant Republicans found themselves drawn to the anything the White House opposed. They could claim they found the anti-Communist, anti-Islamic Extremists stance of the Khanate to be attractive to them though none of them felt the need to actually talk to anyone in the Khanate to find out what they were really all about.

We were happy with that policy because true congressional oversight was the last thing we needed. They might start asking uncomfortable questions like...

'Who gave you the authority to do any of the crap you pulled?'

[No one. We lied like big dogs, purloined resources and cloaked ourselves in 'National Security'. Plus we let our elite personnel have a crack at doing what they had so dedicatedly trained to do -- wreck things.]

'Wasn't that ... that ... and that an act of war against the People's Republic of China?'

['No comment'. If that didn't work, we would try 'they will never find out'.]

'Why are 90% of all the names on these documents redacted? We are the freaking Congress! You work for us.'

[Work for them? Not to our way of thinking. We earned our paychecks without any slavish devotion to corporate campaign contributions. We were working so that the lives of Americans and Brits abroad would be that much safer, the world more orderly and for the US and UK to have an ally they could really rely on. We couldn't tell them that. They'd throw us in jail. We'd redacted the records because the names were for people that did not officially exist, or existed in a capacity that didn't imply they were elite warriors, spies and assassins.]

Besides,

['Those are private citizens not in the employ of this group, or any other government agency we are aware of'.]

'We don't care if they are private citizens. We want to know.'

['You don't want to know' followed by some major gobbledygook with the term 'deniable assets' interspersed relatively often.]

'What do you mean ~ you don't want to know? We asked you a question.'

[We meant you people leak information like a sieve and the people we are protecting aren't going to be afraid of getting revealed. They are going to murder people to ensure they are not ~ basically you don't know what is going on and we don't want to tell you -- for both our safety's sake.]

So,

['Trust us. There are factors we are taking into account that you are unaware of because you don't know what's going on'.]

'Of course we don't know what's going on. That's why we are asking you.'

['You really don't want to know.' We are your highly trained and underpaid experts on this, we aren't raging assholes and we are telling you that bad shit will happen if you force this, thus 'you really don't want to know'.]

'What do you mean ~ you really don't want to know?? Yes, we do. We are warning you ...'

[Okay. Execute Plan B. 'Excuse us for a moment -- {create a plausible lie.}'.]

{Pregnant pause ...}

Congressman-type: 'It is rather odd that they all had to go into another room to take that phone call.'

{Minutes pass}

'Go see what is taking them so long.'

'What do you mean they are all gone? Find them!'

'What do you mean they seem have left the building? Find them!'

'Who do I call about this? The FBI, Homeland Security, or the CIA?

And finally ...

'What do you mean they appear to have fled the country? Find them, damn it!'

[Hey, I worked with some real shady characters.]

Then would come the international manhunts, the flight to avoid prosecution and then resurrecting my life under a different ID in another country which hopefully had a dim view of handing me over to the FBI, or the Navy SEALs.

Now back to our regularly scheduled diversion :